ES & MES Futures Trade Plan #373

Moderate Expectations…

The chime of the warning bell to “moderate expectations” echoed in my mind all morning.

After a 500 point rip roaring move to the north, we are BOUND to get some horrible go-nowhere, do-nothing price action… and here we are. 

Call it digesting a move or just call it indigestion. Whatever it is, the result is the same. Slop and chop.

Battle Plan 2️⃣ Update | Best ES Short Setup

This ES short trade idea was mapped for the Sunday night session and Monday RTH session.

The ES Short paid out on Monday as discussed in yesterday’s Battle Plan and review video.

We don’t map shorts very often, but when we do… they can pay handsomely… because of their aggressive targeting.

🔥 80-Point Short for Battle Plan 2️⃣ if you held!

For those who took this short yesterday… price delivered a nice 30 point RTH move. Jacky took 2 contracts for the entire 30-points. 

And if you held a lotto runner… as preached daily… we made it to our outlined destination for a 70 to 80 point runner during the overnight session.

What a beautiful take profit on ES or MES… Then we have a 15 point bounce off of the Strong Level.

Battle Plan 3️⃣ | ES Long Setup

This long delivered early.

Although we failed to reach our ultimate target, price delivered a clean 10-point move.

We never know how far price will go. 

We are good at where price is going to bounce. We trade the bounce and hold a lotto runner, just in case it runs our way! It’s the most fun people can have outside their marriage. 

ES Live Trading Room

We opened the regular trading hours with some beautiful volatility. 

I thought “the good times” were back. I was proved wrong rather quickly.

Whip-saw. Whip-saw.

We tried to trade this Battle Plan 3️⃣ long again, but we were not as fortunate as the traders who took it in the London session. The first look is often the best trade.

This trade idea centered around the bottom of the range, where it is often best to look for longs rather than shorts at this trade location. Other traders and I took multiple longs that were small wins or scratches. August price action at its finest.

Early in the session we mapped out the scenario below… requiring ES to make a new low and ladder back above the Strong Level. Below is a screenshot from the YouTube Live Stream (time-stamped).

Nice Strong Level | Key Levels for ES

Each weekend I draw which levels I think will be the important levels for the week.

When I drew the 7728 Strong Level, it was 80 points away.

I can’t complain with this one. It performed well. 

ES tried very hard but simply could not reclaim the 7728 Strong Level. And when it does, it should be a sight to behold.

The 22-point range made the entire day hardly worth trading. Chop like this delivers nothing but losses and frustration. 

When you don’t like the price action, walk away from the chart. Easier days wait ahead… probably in September. 

Battle Plan 4️⃣ | ES Short Setup

I was not ready to short ES again as I was short three times yesterday … BUT … Battle Plan 4️⃣ short would have been the easier trade all day.

As mentioned on Zoom, if a person was short from yesterday, you could easily still be holding your short and looking to add to your trade at Battle Plan 4️⃣.

See the Notes. 

Battle Plan 5️⃣ | ES Long Setup

In Discord, I was making calls for Battle Plan 5️⃣!

It was not to be. 

When to Walk…

Some days just aren’t profitable to trade. Especially in the months of July and August, and right after Christmas and New Year’s. People are busy, people are on vacation, people are enjoying their families, people are getting back to school.

So when do I know it’s time to walk from a chart?

Here are a few ideas:

1. Three trades that finish break even, small green, or small red. That’s my main signal.

2. When my levels or mappings are not performing well.

3. When price action is not honoring my bounce levels.

4. When price runs without me.

5. When price isn’t “my type” of price action. Such as… when price goes nowhere, goes nowhere, goes nowhere and then shoots 15 points, then goes nowhere, goes nowhere, goes nowhere and then shoots 10 points. I am out!

When these things happen, I can confidently walk.

With near absolute certainty… at the end of the day… on days like that, I can look back at the chart and honestly say, “I did the right thing.” That is a good feeling.

The ultimate plan is to… keep the powder dry.

I know there’s another high probability trade around the corner and so do you.

We regularly get one to two trades a week that run 100 points. I don’t need to be in every wiggle, and neither do you.

This week…

On Monday, I took two small green trades and walked. I missed the 80-point short. Oh well. 

On Tuesday, I took three small green trades and one red trade and walked.

Walking is a trade.

Learn to walk and be content. As the scripture says, learn to be content with everything you have and everything that happens.

We open another session tomorrow!

Tip of the Day

When you don’t like the price action, walk away from the chart. 

It’s the end of the summer and we are all busy. Including other traders.

Easier days wait ahead… probably in September. 

We wait together. 

Tomorrow’s Live Streams

Scoreboard

Points Accumulated This Week:

Battle Plan: 80+

🔥 80-Points Battle Plan 2️⃣ short if you held a runner. We made it to target. Full points awarded. 

A perfect take profit at target. 

NOTE: I’m still mentally trading this short as if my stop was parked above the London High. Why the London High? That was the last high before we vomited one more time and printed a new low under the Strong Level. A high like that demands your attention. If you placed your stop above it… you were short all day long… while everyone else was trying to trade the slop-n-chop. You had it made in the shade! 

🔥 10-point Battle Plan 3️⃣ during the London session. 

Zoom: 25

Jack nothing. I survived to trade another day. Small green is the way. 

A small win. A small loss. A couple break evens.

Truly, on a day like today … small green or small red or break even … It doesn’t matter. It’s a win! 

There are easier trading days ahead. We wait. 

Core Strategy: 25+

ZERO level development. 

Show me a clean, clear, crisp level. 

In a 22-point range, it’s nearly impossible to trade Core Strategy. We need level development.