ES & MES Futures Trade Plan #364

RTH

More All Time Highs… then absolute “trash” price action.

That whipsaw action can chop up anyone forcing trades.

So on Zoom and YouTube Live, I told traders to Stand Down. Wait for price to explore lower… much lower… or build a new range at/around the Bull Bear Line.

Next Trade?

Truly I say to you… we might not see another high-probability trade idea until next week.

Last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Monday delivered all the great trading… multiple opportunities, hundreds of points, session after session.

Now ES must REST or BACK TEST.

Another high-probability trade waits around the corner.

Still holding my runner. My stop now sits locked at 7738.75… guaranteeing a 400-pointer if price comes back for me. I would not be shocked if it takes me out in the overnight session.

Best ES Trade This Week… Monday’s Long & Hold

One trade. 250+ points. An entire week’s worth of points for those who held Monday’s long past the 50-pointer target and let it run.

When you win a pot that big, you can afford to sit out a few hands. If the next great opportunity holds off for several days, our accounts already did their week’s work.

We wait… but… we wait together.

Caution

In today’s Live Trading Room, I urged to “Stand down”.

Here are a few:

“Should I be trading? Are you the best you? You have to be able to answer that question, yes. Am I the best me? If you’re not, it’s okay. Just paper trade or not trade at all.”

“Do not short a parabolic move.”

“I just be real careful to think this thing’s gonna reverse.”

“If you’re dropping down to a 30-second turn looking for shorts in this parabolic move up, you need to have a talk to yourself.”

“Okay, we are now on parabolic move. It doesn’t mean you have to go long, but I wouldn’t be shorting.”

“There’s no way I’m shorting this.”

“I would not be shorting this. You don’t have to long it either.”

“When you were countering first ladders, they’re the most dangerous even in the longs.”

“It’s a counter trade within the first 6 minutes, on the first ladder. Very difficult trade. I wouldn’t have taken it on.”

“It’s dangerous price action. Dangerous”

“Do not be shorting this.”

“We’re still making higher highs and higher lows. Bulls control, shorts are counters small, if at all.”

“There’s no high probability trades here, guys. There just isn’t. So please moderate your expectations.”

“They may not get another high probability setup until next week.”

“I lean into no trades. Gotta be honest. I just don’t feel we’re in a high probability trading location. I would be scared every entry I make. Here, every entry would scare me.”

“So certainly, low probability trading conditions here, 8-point candles back and forth through the opening. Big no thank you price action.”

“You’re getting absolutely zero level development with the first candle being a 15-point candle. Dangerous price action.”

“This is dangerous price action. And most likely, your trades are going to be breakeven or losers here.”

“All trades are dangerous here. But at least if you’re going long, it’s something you can journal.”

“Make sure if you’re in a trade, your stops are in.”

“Just be careful here, this is dangerous, dangerous price action.”

“I just feel that this is really dangerous here.”

“No easy trades today. I can’t expect it to be. We don’t have a trade location on our side. We’re in no man’s land.”

“And as I said, the next high probability trade might be next week.”

“Dangerous price action, to me, a dangerous location.”

“The next high probability trait might be next week.”

“If you’re wanting to trade an edge, the only edge we are is we’re at new all-time highs. Trying to short that can be very hazardous to your health.”

“Any trade here is low probability.”

“No, thank you, no thank you, no thank you.”

“Ven, this is low probability training conditions.”

“But today’s honestly a no trade day. Don’t try to force a trade today.”

“But I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t look for a trade at all. I think this is better price action to leave alone. I won’t say that lightly.”

“There are easier days to trade. And if trade location is important, and it should be, you can’t trade right here. It’s very difficult. If you do, do it small.”

“I said to expect every trade to be a break-even or loser today. That doesn’t sound like a really good day to try to force a trade.”

“This is the type of day you’re just gonna say, I will not trade this.”

“Still disgusting price action, absolutely nothing here.”

“I’m not trading this. I am done. Walk away, say no thank you. We need something new.”

Tip of the Day

There Are No Sellers:

Until a series of large red candles prints, there are no sellers.

Until we ladder under an RTH low, bulls firmly control. 

Trader’s Homework

“The true test of a man’s character is what he does when no one is watching.” – John Wooden

When Tim saw the homework simulator, he remarked, “This hits so many things simultaneously: review, accountability, feedback, consensus/agreement on levels and their tradability.” 

Tomorrow’s Live Streams

Scoreboard

Points Accumulated This Week:

Battle Plan: 0

Zero. Zilch. Nada. 

There are NO high-probability trades near here. 

It was a … Hold that runner day OR Stand Down day. 

🔥 400+ Pointer Long from Wednesday night’s Battle Plan 3️⃣.

Zoom: 50+

🔥 Nothing today! Know when to Stand Down. 

Most great trading is WAITING… waiting for entry and waiting til price gets you out of your entry. AND… not doing anything stupid in between.

🔥 200+ points if you held onto the Lotto Runner we outlined on Monday’s Zoom… If you held. 

Core Strategy: 104+ (Full Members)

Large 15-point go-nowhere candles nullify any Core Strategy entries. 

Keep your powder dry.

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